On Errors and OBP
Errors suck. For one, they cost the fielding team an out and usually add a baserunner, and they suck for he who made the error. But on the offensive side, they lower your batting stats. It's a good trade-off to drop your batting average one at-bat to get on base, assuming you're a team player.
Errors lower your OBP. But should this be so? I mean, you are technically getting on base, and OBP does stand for On-Base Percentage.
This definition comes straight from MLB's Website:
OBP refers to how frequently a batter reaches base per plate appearance. Times on base include hits, walks and hit-by-pitches, but do not include errors, times reached on a fielder's choice or a dropped third strike. (Separately, sacrifice bunts are removed from the equation entirely, because it is rarely a hitter's decision to sacrifice himself, but rather a manager's choice as part of an in-game strategy.)
A hitter's goal is to avoid making an out, and on-base percentage shows which hitters have accomplished that task the best.
So, OBP is literally a percentage of times a player gets on base. Errors let a player get on base. Why shouldn't they count? I get leaving out the fielder's choice when calculating OBP, because you're replacing an already instituted baserunner with yourself, so there's really no gain. The definition for the sac-bunt is weird. Since it's the manager's decision, it doesn't affect the OBP? That is most definitely not the reason I would've thought of. Anyway, you technically do get on base when you reach on error and OBP literally calculates percentage of times getting on base. So why leave out errors?
Errors aren't times earned on base, but are gained when the other team makes a mistake. So I can see why they don't count on OBP, because hits are earned by the batter. Walks, for the most part, are earned by the batter. Errors are not. But, like I've already mentioned numerous times in these few paragraphs, you do get on base, and MLB's own website doesn't give a reason for why they aren't counted. It makes very little sense that they don't give a reason for why a way to get on base doesn't count on your on-base percentage. I'd love a concise reason for this! This definition comes from the BR Bullpen:
Personally I think an error should raise a players’ OBP, because the offensive player is just taking advantage of the defenders mistake. For instance, in a football game if the defender falls down and the offensive player catches the pass because the defender fell down, the receiver still gets credited for the catch and yardage gained, even though he was technically lucky that the defender fell. So basically in baseball since the batter gets lucky I think it should count, because luck is simply part of the game, and it can hurt you, but it can also benefit you. This is just my opinion on this, but it was a great blog! It really made me think.
ReplyDeleteYes, but in that scenario in football the offensive player correctly performed what they needed to do - catch the ball. The equivalent to reaching on an error would be more like dropping the pass but still gaining the yards of the pass. If a guy hits an easy ground-ball, it's bobbled and he reaches, he failed as a batter even if he gets on base.
Delete(Though there is a complication, I will admit, in that different players reach on errors at different rates - speedy players are much more likely to reach on an error.)
I get what you are saying, and it is well written, but I think you have a slight misinterpretation of what I am trying to say. So what I’m trying to show is that in this scenario the catcher committing an error is the defender falling down and the receiver catching the pass is essentially the batter making it to the base (not the batter hitting the ball). Both scenarios the offensive player benefits off the defensive player making a mistake and then it’s just routine for them. The batter easily makes it to base, while the receiver makes a routine catch. Except in baseball the batter doesn’t statistically get an advantage, while the receiver gets the catch and yardage onto his stats even though had the defender not fallen he wouldn’t have made the catch. Overall, I think since it’s really just luck for the offensive player, the offensive player should always get credited, because luck is just part of the game and why take it away? The MLB should at the very minimum give a better explanation, in my opinion.
DeleteI agree with you 100% on this point.
DeleteOBP is a way of measuring what the player did, positively or negatively. As ROEs are by definition getting on base when you don't deserve it, not sure why that should be counted in the player's favor.
ReplyDeleteThe sacrifice bunt exclusion is a throw-back to the days when sacrifice bunts were seen as a good thing. Therefore it made sense to them to take it out - but yeah, honestly, if a sac fly lowers OBP but a sac bunt doesn't that's kind of nonsensical.
In an ROE you reach base; not through your own efforts but through the mistake of another. You did not reach base yourself.
DeleteThis is a tough one. I run GameChanger for my son's 14U team and ROE can be pretty important still. At that age a hard hit ball puts a lot of pressure on the defense.
ReplyDelete