What on Earth is This?!

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    FanGraphs recently came out with their 2024 playoff predictions, and they're interesting. As fairly predictable, they project the division winners to be the Yankees, the Twins, the Astros, the Braves, the Cardinals and the Dodgers. While I'm unsure if the Cards will win their division, I can stand that these are pretty good guesses. 
    The one that I'm unsure about is the AL West. FanGraphs projects the reigning champions, the Texas Rangers, to finish third in the division, winning 81.3 games and losing 80.7. They give them a 7.4% chance to win the division, a 35.5% chance to make the playoffs, and a 1.5% chance to repeat a World Series victory. UUUGGGGHHHH...
    If these predictions were to come true, I would be a very sad baseball fan, but frankly, I think these predictions stink anyway. For goodness sake, they just won the World Series, and though they lost a good chunk of their bullpen, as well as Mitch Garver (which are both painful), they still have a solid farm system and acquired solid reliever DaveBob (David Robertson), who is old, but still good, because with age comes wisdom. 
    The Rangers will be getting a full season out of Evan Carter and will have prospect Wyatt Langford, which I guess could potentially solve the DH caused by the treachery of Mitch Garver. Wyatt Langford has played 44 minor league games (which I know is very few), and is slashing .360/.480/.677 in that time. mlb.com projects him to lead the MLB in doubles (41), which I know is rather far-fetched. Another possible solution  for a backup catcher because of the loss of Garver is Sam Huff, who had an OPS of .947 with AAA Round Rock last year, and a .776 OPS in his 75 MLB games.
    I am confident that the Rangers won't be as good as they were last year, but I believe that they have a good shot of going to the playoffs, better 35.5% at least. 
    More predictions that surprise me are the Brewers 36.2% chance of making the playoffs and the A's only losing 91 games. If you'd like to see my personal opinion of the A's 2024 campaign, see The Baseball Pessimist, my extension to Talkin' Baseball, in which I am as negative as possible.
    Well, there you go. This semi-useless post explains why I think this year's predictions are bad. The main reason I care about this subject is because I am a diehard Rangers fan and think that FanGraphs is dissing them with these predictions. 
    Thank you for reading.

Comments

  1. GTTFeb 12, 2024, 5:24:00 PM

    Looking at the projections myself, they all seem strange to me, I guess because so much has changed this off-season, and players are aging. But still: the Yankees winning the AL East, the Rays and Orioles winning 85 games apiece, the Rangers being at .500, the Cardinals winning the NL Central, and the Dodgers just winning 94 games - I'm not questioning their correctness, but none of it feels right in my head.

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