WHICH OF THE REDS ROOKIES WOULD WIN THE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR?

WHICH OF THE REDS ROOKIES WOULD WIN THE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR?

The Reds have been pretty good this year, sporting a 63-59 record across 122 games this season. They have four rookies who have been doing a lot to help them come back from a less than ideal 2022 season. These are Spencer Steer, Matt McLain, Andrew Abbott, and Elly De La Cruz. Which one of these players has the highest chance of becoming the 2023 NL Rookie of the Year? Well, let’s look at all of these players one by one and decide.

1: Spencer Steer, 1B, 3B, LF

Spencer Steer is the only one of these four players to have debuted last season. He hit .211 through 95 ABs, but has been a bit better this season, sporting a slash line of .270/.352/.465 through 117 games (as of August 17). He also has 18 Home Runs and 66 RBIs. He has been pretty good thus far. His HR% is 3.6, with the MLB average being 3.0, so he hits slightly more home runs than the average Major Leaguer. He is also striking out almost 3% less than the average major leaguer and walking  1.6% more. That is not a huge difference, but striking out sucks, so good job Spence. His Batting Average with balls in play is .307, 14 points higher than the MLB average, so that’s good too. His hard hit rate (HardH%) is 38.7, around the league average. So, he’s a pretty good hitter. 

As far as fielding goes, he is pretty not good, with a FLD% of .987 at 1B, 8 points lower than the league average, and .948 at third base, 16 points lower than the league average. His range factor at 3B is 2.20, with the MLB average being 2.59. So, pretty bad. Good hitter, not so good fielder.

2: Matt McLain, 2B, SS

Matt McLain has played 79 games this season, a few less than Spencer Steer, but has been pretty good, batting as the Reds second hitter ever since his debut. He has sported some power, mashing 13 home runs in 325 ABs. He is currently slashing .298/.363/.514 as a middle infielder. Those are very good numbers. As for his more advanced stats, his home run rate is 3.6%, identical to his fellow teammate Spence Buddy. His K-rate is 27.7, a whopping 5% higher than the league average, and he is walking 1.3% less than the league average. Not so hot, my friend. However, that means his BAbip is .394! That is insanity! Also, his HardH% is 41.8%, over 2% higher than the league average.

Now, time for fielding. As a SS, McLain is fielding .994, with the League average being .976. Not bad at all. As a 2B, he is fielding .989, about League average. He has played 53 games at short, so has a bigger sample size there. His range factor across the whole season is 3.60, with the average being 3.96. Not so good either, but a much better fielder than Spencer at a harder place overall to field.

3: Elly De La Cruz, 3B, SS

Elly was an enormous prospect, and is considered to be the next Tatis. He slashed .298/.359/.550 through his time in the minors, and the only reason I am bringing that up is because he was such a big prospect. He is currently slashing .259/.308/.453 in the majors through his 60 games. He is at a little bit of a disadvantage because of his lack of games. I’m telling you that the imperial baseball world will find his lack of games disturbing. Anyway, through his 60 games he is homering 3.8%, 0.2% higher than the other two guys. Not a big deal. His K-rate is 34.2%. How are you striking out in more than ⅓ of your plate appearances?! His walk rate is a sad 6.4%, about 2% less than the league average. He does have steals going for him with 19, 8 more than McLain and Steer in less games! Because of the inhuman strike out numbers, his BAbip is .367, over 100 points higher than his batting average. Elly’s HardH% is 46.5%, 7% more than the league average. Mighty strong, my friend.

As for fielding, he has a FLD% of .986 at third, better than the league .964. However, as a SS, his fielding is 8 points lower than the league average at .968. Elly’s range factor throughout the whole season at both of his positions is 3.32 with the average being 3.21. Finally, a fielder with a better range factor than the average!

4: Andrew Abbott, LHP

Andrew Abbott was a prospect pitcher who joined the majors 14 starts ago, and has been very good in that time, with an 8-3 record and a 2.99 ERA. He has a fastball at about 94 MPH, a curveball at the high 70s, a slider in the low 80s, and a changeup at 87. This arsenal has been pretty effective, giving him a .727 W-L%. He is striking out 9.7 batters per 9 and walking 3, giving him a K/BB ratio of 3.26. He is allowing about 7 hits per 9 also. The southpaw has been very good so far. 

His BAA is .216, with the average being .248. His home run rate is 3.4%, very close to the league average, and his K-rate is 4.2% higher than the league average at a solid 26.9%. He is also walking about 0.3% less batters than the league average. Not a big deal. However his HardH% is 41.5%, with the average being 39.6%. This and his 38.2% fly ball rate are less than ideal. Nevertheless, he has been solid thus far, and a huge upgrade to the pitching staff of the Cincinnati Reds.

So, who do I think would win the ROY if it were one of these players? I would think it should be Matt McLain or Andrew Abbott. Elly hasn’t played in enough games, and would only have 100 if he played in the rest of the Reds’ games. And both of these players have been better than Spencer Steer this season. If I had to narrow it down to one of these players, I would have to say Matt McLain would win the ROY, because Andrew Abbott has been a bit fickle so far, having a few disastrous starts. However, he has been just insane when at his best. McLain has been consistently good since he came up and has been performing like one who has been in the league for years. I know that he will get votes for the Rookie of the Year and would not at all be surprised if he won it.